* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 59 70 75 79 77 77 76 78 83 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 59 70 75 79 77 77 76 78 83 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 47 56 64 69 70 68 68 69 71 77 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 9 6 6 2 10 13 9 19 15 19 21 23 14 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 0 0 0 4 1 5 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 56 48 63 52 328 284 266 261 241 234 228 249 262 273 308 304 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 139 136 136 138 135 133 131 128 127 128 130 136 138 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 73 71 66 66 64 63 66 59 57 51 49 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 16 20 21 23 20 21 21 21 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 25 18 19 22 16 23 22 24 33 22 22 4 0 -15 -39 200 MB DIV 23 0 4 21 36 25 -8 19 62 64 30 16 -10 -2 -1 5 27 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 0 0 4 2 2 5 12 15 7 3 4 5 -3 2 LAND (KM) 996 1127 1234 1342 1438 1621 1827 1992 2137 2147 2157 2189 2092 1938 1740 1586 1479 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.8 28.0 29.0 30.0 30.9 32.6 34.5 36.0 37.3 38.4 39.5 40.5 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 8 11 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 16 12 12 18 20 23 33 23 24 31 19 15 19 21 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 43. 45. 45. 44. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 9. 11. 6. 6. 4. 3. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 34. 45. 50. 54. 52. 52. 51. 53. 58. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 26.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 15.2% 10.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.4% 5.3% 1.8% 1.0% 10.2% 20.4% 35.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 14.7% 2.6% 0.3% 0.5% 3.0% 6.6% 11.6% Consensus: 2.0% 14.1% 6.1% 2.9% 0.5% 4.4% 13.4% 15.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 59 70 75 79 77 77 76 78 83 91 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 40 48 56 67 72 76 74 74 73 75 80 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 43 51 62 67 71 69 69 68 70 75 83 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 34 42 53 58 62 60 60 59 61 66 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT