* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 45 50 54 59 61 62 64 67 68 71 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 45 50 54 59 61 62 64 67 68 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 43 45 47 49 52 55 58 62 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 1 4 12 16 19 14 13 14 14 15 13 14 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 4 -1 1 -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 57 41 57 177 217 277 297 282 270 269 265 253 259 281 302 309 327 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 139 133 135 139 137 135 137 131 132 134 133 132 140 137 139 151 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 74 73 71 67 68 66 68 63 62 57 53 50 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 27 19 25 27 12 16 13 11 21 12 10 6 4 6 3 -15 200 MB DIV -4 1 13 24 29 -7 7 7 25 50 34 9 9 -1 13 14 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 3 5 1 5 1 4 -5 -4 -7 -2 -1 -7 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1072 1181 1290 1398 1496 1723 1941 2126 2087 2021 1959 1799 1653 1474 1285 1082 906 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.4 33.5 35.5 37.2 38.9 40.5 42.3 44.3 46.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 9 10 15 21 21 35 24 36 31 39 29 21 18 30 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 28. 34. 40. 42. 45. 45. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 25. 29. 34. 36. 37. 39. 42. 43. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 27.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 16.1% 10.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 22.3% 10.9% 3.7% 2.6% 14.2% 14.9% 31.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 8.2% Consensus: 2.1% 14.9% 7.5% 3.6% 0.9% 4.9% 9.2% 13.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 38 45 50 54 59 61 62 64 67 68 71 74 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 43 48 52 57 59 60 62 65 66 69 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 38 43 47 52 54 55 57 60 61 64 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 29 34 38 43 45 46 48 51 52 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT