* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 52 57 60 64 64 67 66 66 68 68 75 77 77 78 81 V (KT) LAND 45 47 52 57 60 54 48 51 50 50 52 53 59 61 61 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 51 46 43 46 49 52 56 61 67 74 82 89 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 10 3 7 11 9 14 16 22 20 19 17 12 12 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 4 3 3 0 6 6 4 5 2 -1 -5 1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 273 285 303 249 226 266 251 294 290 297 273 289 261 288 217 209 213 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.8 30.0 29.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 151 151 165 153 156 155 156 153 150 153 166 171 168 142 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 2.3 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 69 64 65 63 66 67 70 71 76 76 77 73 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 14 11 13 13 14 18 20 27 30 33 35 40 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 62 74 73 45 39 4 8 -8 29 26 77 70 99 112 102 200 MB DIV 76 55 69 97 83 67 52 47 43 25 71 58 70 68 77 41 81 700-850 TADV -1 4 6 10 12 14 10 13 12 6 0 0 -2 0 10 6 11 LAND (KM) 234 244 276 233 147 -22 91 278 394 431 424 397 424 544 813 1141 912 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.4 18.5 20.7 22.2 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.2 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 70.5 70.8 70.9 70.9 71.0 70.7 69.8 68.2 67.1 66.6 66.9 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 8 9 12 10 8 6 4 3 1 3 10 15 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 79 83 90 86 68 52 59 80 71 69 64 66 67 79 42 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. 26. 24. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -3. -4. -3. 2. 4. 13. 17. 20. 21. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 15. 19. 19. 22. 21. 21. 23. 23. 30. 32. 32. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 70.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 38.5% 22.8% 12.0% 10.8% 17.2% 19.8% 23.5% Logistic: 4.4% 17.9% 9.7% 4.4% 1.6% 3.8% 5.0% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 3.8% 19.6% 11.1% 5.5% 4.2% 7.1% 8.5% 9.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 52 57 60 54 48 51 50 50 52 53 59 61 61 63 66 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 57 51 45 48 47 47 49 50 56 58 58 60 63 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 49 43 37 40 39 39 41 42 48 50 50 52 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 32 26 29 28 28 30 31 37 39 39 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT