* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 42 46 50 53 52 56 55 57 57 60 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 42 46 50 53 52 56 55 57 57 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 38 40 41 43 45 47 49 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 7 12 18 15 14 14 14 16 15 12 15 18 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 5 -1 0 1 -4 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 57 47 236 214 253 292 279 278 251 246 234 239 247 307 325 353 343 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 136 137 136 134 138 132 133 133 135 134 138 138 139 142 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 71 70 65 65 63 67 65 60 57 52 52 54 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 10 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 16 20 21 18 11 23 9 26 16 13 19 18 17 -1 -19 -23 200 MB DIV 5 14 7 9 0 -37 -3 -1 60 18 26 -2 20 -13 -10 17 35 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 6 6 3 1 0 -1 -7 -8 -5 -10 -2 -9 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1194 1315 1434 1554 1673 1909 2125 2054 1979 1904 1799 1638 1485 1314 1142 978 849 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.7 30.8 31.9 33.0 35.2 37.2 38.9 40.5 42.2 43.9 45.8 47.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 11 15 19 19 34 24 36 30 40 35 24 25 24 42 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 27. 34. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -11. -12. -15. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 27. 31. 30. 32. 32. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 28.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.9% 10.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 16.6% 7.9% 2.2% 1.2% 6.4% 9.5% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 2.5% Consensus: 2.2% 11.8% 6.5% 3.1% 0.4% 2.2% 7.2% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 36 42 46 50 53 52 56 55 57 57 60 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 34 40 44 48 51 50 54 53 55 55 58 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 35 39 43 46 45 49 48 50 50 53 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 27 31 35 38 37 41 40 42 42 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT