* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 48 50 53 60 63 71 74 82 85 92 88 90 84 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 48 38 44 51 54 61 64 73 76 82 78 81 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 46 36 40 43 47 50 53 58 65 74 80 82 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 6 10 14 13 17 16 23 24 29 22 17 13 14 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 3 6 0 -1 0 3 3 1 2 -6 0 0 3 7 2 SHEAR DIR 287 293 273 223 253 272 294 318 298 287 284 246 227 158 191 167 211 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.3 28.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 153 155 157 151 154 160 161 161 167 169 165 157 144 127 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -50.9 -50.6 -49.4 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 70 70 68 67 64 65 65 67 64 63 60 67 72 66 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 14 12 11 10 14 14 19 21 27 31 38 37 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 66 64 50 45 3 -9 -4 12 4 35 39 74 94 142 130 200 MB DIV 33 57 86 60 48 44 23 61 48 46 19 54 17 74 33 113 73 700-850 TADV 5 8 8 9 11 15 13 17 9 10 0 3 -3 2 12 2 16 LAND (KM) 269 296 236 158 100 -38 170 340 484 574 601 724 910 1065 1026 888 689 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.3 19.3 21.1 22.3 23.2 23.7 24.1 25.2 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.3 70.4 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.3 69.4 68.3 67.0 66.0 65.3 65.4 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 7 9 9 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 87 91 84 68 58 55 66 72 74 69 61 52 38 28 21 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. 22. 19. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -1. -1. 5. 8. 16. 20. 28. 27. 31. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 5. 8. 15. 18. 26. 29. 37. 40. 47. 43. 45. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 70.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.4% 11.0% 8.6% 6.4% 11.1% 14.2% 17.3% Logistic: 3.2% 8.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 4.1% 7.3% 6.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 9.2% 5.1% 3.4% 2.3% 5.2% 7.2% 7.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 48 38 44 51 54 61 64 73 76 82 78 81 74 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 46 36 42 49 52 59 62 71 74 80 76 79 72 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 31 37 44 47 54 57 66 69 75 71 74 67 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 24 30 37 40 47 50 59 62 68 64 67 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT