* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HAROLD AL092023 08/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 45 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 39 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 41 35 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 14 12 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 6 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 141 137 153 127 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.2 30.7 30.0 30.3 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 172 174 156 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 64 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 15 12 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 11 8 13 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 10 25 67 22 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -1 15 2 -19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 286 111 -36 -206 -386 -577 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.3 28.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 96.0 97.8 99.5 101.3 104.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 53 34 6 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.8 94.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092023 HAROLD 08/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.9% 11.1% 8.7% 5.8% 10.3% 12.5% 21.1% Logistic: 5.4% 16.9% 10.2% 6.8% 2.9% 13.2% 11.3% 4.2% Bayesian: 5.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% Consensus: 4.9% 12.8% 7.7% 5.2% 2.9% 8.1% 8.6% 9.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092023 HAROLD 08/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092023 HAROLD 08/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 39 34 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 35 30 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 31 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT