* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 55 64 71 77 83 86 87 87 91 99 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 55 64 71 77 83 86 87 87 91 99 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 42 51 60 68 75 81 84 86 90 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 7 3 2 4 8 9 8 5 6 11 11 12 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 -1 1 5 1 0 -6 -6 -2 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 138 147 160 202 310 60 16 50 75 103 90 75 46 52 38 24 13 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 141 141 138 136 136 137 136 133 133 134 138 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 65 62 60 63 62 69 66 67 60 59 57 60 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 25 27 22 27 33 32 41 20 14 0 -9 -8 -9 -15 -16 200 MB DIV 30 25 -9 -18 -47 -30 -1 31 33 32 -12 -1 -18 -20 -8 3 10 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 3 1 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1567 1749 1876 1983 2007 1851 1725 1642 1606 1606 1608 1602 1575 1457 1312 1130 966 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.1 15.2 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.1 33.8 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.7 40.1 41.3 42.3 43.2 43.9 44.7 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 24 26 34 33 23 24 25 33 35 29 29 23 27 38 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 354 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 29. 37. 43. 46. 49. 50. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 22. 30. 39. 46. 52. 58. 61. 62. 62. 66. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 32.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 13.7% 9.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 5.4% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% 3.0% 2.2% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 1.5% 6.7% 4.8% 2.8% 0.2% 1.2% 4.7% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 55 64 71 77 83 86 87 87 91 99 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 45 53 62 69 75 81 84 85 85 89 97 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 41 49 58 65 71 77 80 81 81 85 93 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 41 50 57 63 69 72 73 73 77 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT