* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 30 29 30 31 37 41 45 45 47 45 48 47 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 30 29 30 31 37 41 45 45 47 45 48 47 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 22 20 21 24 27 29 28 26 24 25 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 44 45 44 28 16 9 9 7 14 20 26 29 40 44 42 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 3 6 6 0 -3 0 1 9 5 1 0 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 279 276 279 293 299 271 228 257 236 226 197 226 236 252 256 277 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.6 26.3 23.4 19.2 16.2 16.0 18.0 21.5 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 134 137 143 137 134 133 122 119 97 81 76 77 81 90 176 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 39 41 44 52 54 58 62 59 61 54 48 40 37 39 40 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 13 16 18 17 16 12 11 9 15 850 MB ENV VOR 21 7 0 -10 -16 -46 -13 0 15 3 3 -35 -79 -129 -51 10 79 200 MB DIV 28 0 7 25 29 16 23 8 51 42 38 26 21 -1 0 -8 9 700-850 TADV 7 9 5 1 7 12 10 15 18 18 24 32 3 -6 -10 -18 1 LAND (KM) 1853 1811 1796 1807 1853 1978 1747 1501 1240 1031 883 989 1451 958 519 125 -156 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.4 29.5 31.7 34.1 36.9 39.8 43.1 46.8 49.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.9 46.5 46.9 47.1 47.0 46.8 46.5 45.8 44.5 43.0 39.6 33.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 11 11 13 16 16 20 24 28 33 33 28 24 HEAT CONTENT 21 15 27 21 19 10 10 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -3. -0. 2. -1. -3. -9. -12. -15. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 11. 15. 15. 17. 15. 18. 17. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 45.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 30 29 30 31 37 41 45 45 47 45 48 47 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 29 28 29 30 36 40 44 44 46 44 47 46 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 25 26 32 36 40 40 42 40 43 42 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 19 20 26 30 34 34 36 34 37 36 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT