* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 47 47 49 56 60 66 70 78 83 88 86 84 78 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 42 41 43 49 54 59 64 72 76 82 79 77 72 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 45 38 40 43 45 47 50 54 61 70 76 77 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 12 14 17 13 16 23 19 27 27 27 17 8 12 8 13 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 0 -2 -2 -1 3 0 0 -5 -2 -5 2 2 10 4 SHEAR DIR 292 268 236 242 260 265 305 289 295 273 273 243 237 185 162 169 214 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 154 160 164 152 158 157 164 159 159 170 168 162 152 145 139 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.1 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 68 66 66 63 63 62 64 64 65 62 67 72 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 13 12 9 10 13 15 19 23 28 31 37 37 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 56 70 64 51 41 18 -17 0 -8 16 23 52 38 72 80 77 63 200 MB DIV 44 76 58 47 53 33 31 60 30 59 37 50 54 49 23 67 91 700-850 TADV 6 8 5 6 8 11 9 6 4 -2 -2 -3 -2 4 -1 7 -11 LAND (KM) 273 183 93 20 -11 123 338 441 558 570 585 730 1009 1096 1004 919 565 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.4 20.8 22.6 23.1 23.7 23.8 24.0 25.3 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.3 71.4 71.2 71.0 70.0 69.1 67.8 66.5 65.4 64.9 65.0 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 11 11 8 7 5 4 4 10 12 9 10 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 91 75 62 54 52 63 79 70 76 60 58 50 31 23 19 16 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. 21. 17. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -0. 5. 9. 16. 19. 26. 25. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 11. 15. 21. 25. 33. 38. 43. 41. 39. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 71.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 10.2% 8.4% 6.1% 10.9% 12.8% 14.9% Logistic: 1.1% 4.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% 4.5% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 6.7% 4.0% 3.1% 2.1% 4.6% 5.8% 6.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 42 41 43 49 54 59 64 72 76 82 79 77 72 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 40 39 41 47 52 57 62 70 74 80 77 75 70 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 36 35 37 43 48 53 58 66 70 76 73 71 66 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 29 31 37 42 47 52 60 64 70 67 65 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT