* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 32 34 39 42 46 48 54 61 68 68 70 67 62 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 28 32 37 40 44 47 52 59 66 66 69 65 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 26 29 30 32 32 32 33 35 38 42 45 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 18 14 18 17 26 23 32 18 20 22 10 10 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 0 0 -5 -1 -1 -2 -1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 265 247 265 282 272 294 311 300 283 286 255 219 140 174 168 239 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 160 168 168 155 157 155 155 155 162 164 168 155 146 136 135 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -51.6 -50.7 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 67 67 62 61 63 66 63 64 60 59 57 59 60 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 10 11 10 11 12 14 16 18 21 26 27 30 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 69 59 44 34 25 -11 -28 -5 14 9 43 18 32 21 40 2 31 200 MB DIV 68 50 52 53 44 36 46 38 39 11 44 17 49 18 57 15 57 700-850 TADV 7 7 9 8 11 11 10 9 5 4 11 1 2 4 4 13 10 LAND (KM) 249 160 72 17 -52 147 303 403 485 544 616 741 919 969 837 755 576 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.2 17.0 18.0 18.9 21.0 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.5 24.3 25.7 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.3 71.3 71.0 70.7 69.9 68.9 67.7 66.8 66.4 66.5 66.9 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 9 7 5 3 3 6 9 11 9 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 82 70 61 56 56 69 81 72 75 77 76 42 45 22 17 10 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 28. 25. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. 3. 8. 9. 13. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 19. 26. 33. 33. 35. 32. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 71.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 14.9% 9.7% 8.0% 6.1% 10.4% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 4.1% 6.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 7.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.3% 4.8% 5.7% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 31 28 32 37 40 44 47 52 59 66 66 69 65 61 18HR AGO 35 34 33 31 28 32 37 40 44 47 52 59 66 66 69 65 61 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 26 30 35 38 42 45 50 57 64 64 67 63 59 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 22 26 31 34 38 41 46 53 60 60 63 59 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT