* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 36 39 41 48 54 57 58 57 57 73 70 67 60 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 36 39 41 48 54 57 58 57 57 73 70 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 32 33 38 44 45 41 36 36 40 42 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 42 28 15 13 4 5 5 12 16 18 30 43 45 48 47 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 9 7 2 -1 3 6 5 9 2 -3 -3 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 275 287 292 266 255 208 214 219 232 196 224 215 229 240 263 274 269 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.5 26.6 24.7 20.5 18.3 17.3 18.6 21.7 23.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 144 147 144 139 133 121 122 106 85 80 79 82 90 99 174 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -52.8 -53.3 -54.3 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 44 50 53 58 59 62 61 62 54 45 36 32 31 30 28 27 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 9 11 11 14 18 19 18 15 14 23 20 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -10 -19 -28 -37 -6 0 16 2 5 -30 -65 -86 -87 -83 5 25 200 MB DIV 11 16 35 30 12 25 20 50 39 16 10 14 13 -16 -18 -3 1 700-850 TADV 4 1 8 12 12 10 11 20 17 15 27 -1 -45 -20 -18 1 -23 LAND (KM) 1733 1712 1748 1814 1893 1767 1523 1268 1085 1026 1145 1559 954 538 60 -249 100 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.3 27.3 28.3 29.2 31.3 33.7 36.5 39.3 42.2 45.4 47.9 49.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.0 48.3 48.3 48.1 47.7 47.2 46.1 44.3 41.7 38.0 31.8 22.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 12 13 16 16 19 23 27 33 31 24 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 18 19 14 12 8 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -2. 1. 5. 7. 4. 0. -4. 9. 4. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 13. 19. 22. 23. 22. 22. 38. 35. 32. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.4 47.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.04 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.54 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 4.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 6.1% 10.4% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 2.5% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 36 39 41 48 54 57 58 57 57 73 70 35 32 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 34 37 39 46 52 55 56 55 55 71 68 33 30 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 34 36 43 49 52 53 52 52 68 65 30 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 27 29 36 42 45 46 45 45 61 58 23 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT