* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 38 42 46 48 51 53 58 65 68 72 73 73 65 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 31 33 37 41 43 46 48 53 60 63 67 68 68 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 29 31 32 34 36 37 37 38 41 46 51 56 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 13 14 22 18 26 25 24 19 10 17 5 13 11 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -3 0 3 0 4 -2 2 -5 2 0 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 253 264 276 276 277 313 283 297 267 266 208 161 156 125 187 272 265 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 160 170 170 158 156 155 154 156 159 164 166 166 148 143 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -50.5 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 68 67 62 62 60 64 63 64 63 64 62 59 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 11 10 10 12 13 15 17 20 24 26 29 31 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 53 46 37 28 14 -18 3 9 35 28 38 19 30 25 23 12 5 200 MB DIV 55 55 61 66 69 50 40 13 56 34 52 27 24 35 17 28 23 700-850 TADV 7 11 11 13 11 10 4 5 1 8 1 0 2 -1 6 -1 19 LAND (KM) 182 73 5 -66 23 203 312 393 480 558 654 797 963 882 774 762 553 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.5 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.8 26.4 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.3 71.1 70.9 70.6 69.8 68.7 67.7 66.9 66.7 66.8 67.3 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 7 5 5 4 4 7 10 11 9 11 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 74 61 56 57 61 78 79 71 76 83 63 43 33 18 17 13 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 30. 27. 23. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -13. -13. -11. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 23. 30. 33. 37. 38. 38. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 71.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 20.1% 12.1% 9.4% 7.6% 11.4% 12.5% 13.6% Logistic: 3.5% 21.4% 10.7% 6.4% 3.4% 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 14.1% 7.6% 5.3% 3.6% 6.1% 6.5% 6.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 31 33 37 41 43 46 48 53 60 63 67 68 68 60 18HR AGO 35 34 34 30 32 36 40 42 45 47 52 59 62 66 67 67 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 27 29 33 37 39 42 44 49 56 59 63 64 64 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 37 40 42 47 54 57 61 62 62 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT