* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 42 47 52 54 57 54 46 38 36 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 42 47 52 54 57 54 46 38 36 36 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 36 36 39 44 47 46 43 38 36 35 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 28 19 17 10 6 6 4 4 6 7 20 31 23 31 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 5 4 -1 0 5 4 0 -2 0 -2 0 -6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 283 280 255 243 249 115 148 216 227 231 326 339 356 348 346 348 340 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.5 26.6 24.6 24.2 24.0 24.6 24.9 26.1 26.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 148 149 146 140 133 121 121 102 97 94 101 103 113 120 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 51 56 56 59 63 65 61 53 45 45 52 59 58 55 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 17 17 19 16 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -18 -15 -21 -10 0 7 -2 -19 -15 -62 -51 -40 -51 -18 -11 -9 200 MB DIV 15 38 34 6 12 31 42 37 11 -5 5 -7 -29 -23 -31 -7 -42 700-850 TADV 4 6 8 9 11 5 16 19 16 6 7 -1 -7 -7 -3 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1641 1633 1680 1753 1826 1776 1536 1306 1198 1203 1261 1301 1308 1334 1378 1494 1676 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.2 31.1 33.5 36.2 38.5 40.2 41.1 40.9 40.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.4 49.5 49.3 49.0 48.3 47.5 45.9 43.5 41.1 39.3 38.9 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 8 11 14 16 13 11 5 3 7 7 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 22 24 21 17 11 9 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 841 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 1. -6. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 19. 22. 19. 11. 3. 1. 1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.1 48.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.5% 5.0% 3.4% 0.0% 6.7% 7.8% 11.6% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 40 42 47 52 54 57 54 46 38 36 36 37 39 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 40 45 50 52 55 52 44 36 34 34 35 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 41 46 48 51 48 40 32 30 30 31 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 34 39 41 44 41 33 25 23 23 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT