* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 54 56 56 60 58 64 69 74 74 77 78 76 70 V (KT) LAND 45 49 39 41 43 45 45 49 47 53 58 63 63 66 67 65 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 40 41 42 44 47 49 49 51 55 59 65 71 75 76 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 17 20 18 26 19 23 14 13 13 6 6 10 11 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 4 1 3 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 274 274 274 292 300 290 275 270 212 186 121 181 174 270 269 278 SST (C) 29.4 30.0 29.9 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 171 168 157 155 157 156 156 160 162 163 168 151 142 135 131 109 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 3 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 62 60 59 61 58 60 57 60 55 57 56 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 8 8 9 10 14 13 17 20 23 24 27 28 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 38 29 19 8 -19 -4 -1 38 29 47 22 30 4 15 -18 -28 -40 200 MB DIV 49 44 46 47 40 35 25 13 32 31 -1 37 4 37 -4 32 23 700-850 TADV 8 8 13 12 10 11 9 6 3 10 -1 7 0 3 10 9 19 LAND (KM) 93 0 -71 43 156 298 390 456 572 656 757 895 912 767 725 696 424 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 18.0 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.9 27.7 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.1 70.9 70.6 70.3 69.4 68.3 67.4 66.6 66.5 67.0 67.6 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 9 6 5 4 4 5 8 11 11 8 10 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 63 56 57 61 69 86 73 75 82 65 41 49 19 17 13 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 21. 16. 12. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -1. -3. 1. 6. 9. 9. 12. 14. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 15. 13. 19. 24. 29. 29. 32. 33. 31. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 71.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 32.9% 18.4% 9.8% 9.8% 13.5% 14.2% 15.3% Logistic: 3.8% 10.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3.0% 4.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 3.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 15.8% 7.9% 4.0% 3.5% 5.6% 6.2% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 39 41 43 45 45 49 47 53 58 63 63 66 67 65 59 18HR AGO 45 44 34 36 38 40 40 44 42 48 53 58 58 61 62 60 54 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 47 51 49 55 60 65 65 68 69 67 61 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 39 43 41 47 52 57 57 60 61 59 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT