* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 39 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 39 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 31 32 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 17 18 18 18 22 21 17 20 20 22 20 14 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 -6 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 295 307 322 336 350 358 356 5 10 43 37 53 42 71 83 123 163 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 149 151 155 161 162 164 155 151 153 155 155 154 152 155 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 61 60 58 60 61 64 65 64 61 62 57 59 54 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -82 -74 -73 -75 -65 -46 3 20 5 -51 -67 -91 -86 -97 -90 -104 200 MB DIV -13 0 -2 4 16 33 8 35 18 13 -34 -20 -14 4 0 -10 12 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 2 2 1 2 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 285 332 349 349 332 273 160 123 127 158 246 374 432 474 435 440 454 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.7 16.8 16.1 16.1 16.8 18.0 19.4 20.8 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.2 58.8 58.6 58.5 58.6 59.1 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.3 60.3 60.4 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 2 6 7 8 6 5 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 61 59 60 61 61 64 60 60 70 76 55 77 75 59 42 43 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 20. 28. 34. 40. 43. 46. 47. 46. 45. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -21. -21. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 59.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 13.0% 8.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 2.2% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.9% 3.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.4% 4.3% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 39 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 46 49 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 38 40 42 43 44 44 44 44 45 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 31 35 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 42 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 28 30 32 33 34 34 34 34 35 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT