* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 35 36 40 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 17 15 9 6 11 20 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 0 -2 -4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 260 237 214 154 167 198 207 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 27.8 26.7 25.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 151 150 148 136 124 110 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 61 64 62 55 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 13 15 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -15 0 34 41 34 8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 48 32 18 23 39 47 35 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 9 8 6 6 22 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1643 1691 1746 1849 1708 1419 1074 758 675 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 15 19 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 20 17 18 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 859 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.8 49.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 12.3% 8.3% 7.0% 4.2% 9.3% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.3% 2.9% 2.4% 1.4% 3.2% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 50 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 41 45 49 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 41 45 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 38 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT