* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 49 52 55 54 58 62 66 70 72 76 74 75 72 65 V (KT) LAND 40 35 40 42 46 48 48 51 55 60 63 65 69 68 69 66 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 38 40 41 43 44 45 47 51 54 59 65 69 72 68 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 22 22 19 26 23 14 13 8 11 5 9 13 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 5 5 1 0 2 -4 -2 -2 4 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 263 251 253 280 304 277 292 251 253 172 130 152 117 208 237 261 276 SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.0 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 163 155 158 160 159 158 155 160 169 167 164 153 148 153 140 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -50.9 -50.6 -49.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 59 60 60 59 60 60 59 60 61 62 60 58 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 11 11 11 14 16 19 21 23 26 26 27 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 32 22 1 -20 0 13 19 49 47 47 19 31 32 16 3 -21 32 200 MB DIV 63 59 50 36 27 45 10 41 29 20 4 37 10 9 0 24 45 700-850 TADV 8 16 12 11 9 6 9 2 8 6 1 2 1 10 10 14 35 LAND (KM) -2 -42 88 183 282 393 479 543 602 723 901 1021 875 763 757 593 335 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.5 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.4 23.6 24.1 25.4 27.3 29.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.0 70.9 70.5 70.0 68.7 67.6 66.6 66.4 66.6 67.0 67.6 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 8 6 5 3 4 8 9 9 9 10 14 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 54 57 59 73 85 73 76 82 75 48 46 41 28 20 18 29 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. 18. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 12. 14. 13. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 36. 34. 35. 32. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 71.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 22.2% 12.6% 9.8% 7.5% 11.4% 11.8% 14.2% Logistic: 5.8% 15.4% 7.7% 3.9% 1.4% 4.3% 5.0% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 13.4% 7.0% 4.7% 3.0% 5.3% 5.7% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 40 42 46 48 48 51 55 60 63 65 69 68 69 66 58 18HR AGO 40 39 44 46 50 52 52 55 59 64 67 69 73 72 73 70 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 42 44 44 47 51 56 59 61 65 64 65 62 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 36 36 39 43 48 51 53 57 56 57 54 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT