* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 39 43 47 50 50 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 39 43 47 50 50 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 39 42 42 37 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 8 3 6 10 22 35 41 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 4 2 0 0 6 5 2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 252 245 143 147 218 206 216 228 237 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.1 25.3 24.4 18.3 15.9 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 148 145 140 128 111 105 78 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 61 61 58 45 37 36 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 15 16 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -22 -3 17 32 27 8 -10 -60 -90 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 31 15 12 43 45 57 53 52 25 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 10 6 8 23 25 32 28 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1668 1753 1843 1766 1621 1310 964 727 813 1225 1278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 14 14 17 21 22 22 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 16 15 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 15. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 15. 15. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.3 49.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.9% 8.0% 6.7% 3.9% 9.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 39 43 47 50 50 50 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 42 46 49 49 49 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 42 45 45 45 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 34 37 37 37 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT