* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 40 41 46 47 54 59 62 67 72 70 68 65 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 40 42 44 49 50 57 62 65 70 75 73 71 68 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 40 43 46 49 49 51 51 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 20 21 17 25 20 26 17 16 18 13 9 15 13 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 5 2 0 -1 -4 -2 -9 -3 0 -6 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 256 254 277 300 296 282 271 257 211 216 149 177 185 242 255 277 269 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.9 27.5 26.8 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 157 158 157 157 155 154 153 165 165 166 159 148 150 132 126 87 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 58 60 60 57 60 58 62 58 61 57 59 59 62 70 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 11 9 12 12 15 18 20 22 24 24 25 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 20 -3 -20 -15 3 -3 31 24 49 15 32 2 11 -17 -11 -43 -18 200 MB DIV 60 25 28 9 35 15 23 23 54 -17 44 2 0 7 33 22 61 700-850 TADV 12 10 9 9 9 6 11 4 11 1 6 0 3 7 11 16 43 LAND (KM) -42 77 198 264 334 438 511 577 711 843 976 991 842 806 726 539 301 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.2 23.8 25.0 26.5 28.2 30.1 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.7 70.4 70.0 69.5 68.9 67.6 66.5 65.7 65.9 66.4 67.0 67.4 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 7 6 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 10 15 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 58 63 78 86 80 74 74 63 53 38 40 42 19 16 11 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. 0. -1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 11. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 12. 19. 24. 27. 32. 37. 35. 33. 30. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 70.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 15.8% 10.6% 8.8% 7.0% 10.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 9.6% 4.7% 3.2% 1.6% 4.2% 4.3% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 8.7% 5.1% 4.0% 2.9% 4.7% 4.7% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 39 40 42 44 49 50 57 62 65 70 75 73 71 68 62 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 40 45 46 53 58 61 66 71 69 67 64 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 41 42 49 54 57 62 67 65 63 60 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 34 35 42 47 50 55 60 58 56 53 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT