* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 26 29 30 32 30 29 33 37 36 37 37 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 26 29 30 32 30 29 33 37 36 37 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 22 19 22 12 17 11 16 22 22 22 28 24 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 288 286 293 289 295 301 292 289 299 314 325 324 332 357 13 24 23 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 137 136 134 134 134 134 134 139 148 149 148 147 146 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 61 62 66 69 71 70 73 74 73 71 69 65 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 6 8 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 17 12 3 -14 -26 -43 -62 -73 -76 -89 -76 -74 -67 -54 -48 200 MB DIV -24 -15 -8 3 28 18 25 -4 4 -12 30 -8 6 -11 -34 -33 -28 700-850 TADV 4 6 3 3 3 1 -3 -8 -10 -6 -5 1 0 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2002 2111 2089 2042 2026 1996 1871 1752 1644 1569 1564 1620 1681 1711 1716 1664 1579 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.6 24.1 25.3 26.7 27.9 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.1 37.1 38.2 39.3 40.3 42.1 44.0 45.8 47.5 49.0 50.1 50.5 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 3 1 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 26 25 27 37 31 24 16 13 22 29 29 23 22 21 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 26. 31. 35. 36. 37. 37. 36. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -13. -11. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 10. 12. 10. 9. 13. 17. 16. 17. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.2 36.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 3.1% 4.8% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 22 26 29 30 32 30 29 33 37 36 37 37 38 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 25 28 29 31 29 28 32 36 35 36 36 37 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 21 24 25 27 25 24 28 32 31 32 32 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT