* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 38 40 44 49 49 47 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 38 40 44 49 49 47 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 42 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 3 6 9 17 33 36 37 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 2 1 -1 4 5 4 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 229 157 145 183 214 213 221 243 246 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 26.8 25.5 22.4 19.1 15.7 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 140 136 125 113 93 80 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -51.3 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 59 61 61 58 52 39 34 31 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 15 17 17 16 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 0 32 36 25 26 7 -17 -64 -87 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 7 13 42 25 48 44 48 31 -4 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 7 5 11 24 30 23 16 -28 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1840 1756 1607 1460 1141 856 744 948 1384 1144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 15 18 20 22 22 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 16 13 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 14. 12. 12. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.6 49.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 15.2% 10.4% 8.5% 6.1% 10.1% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.7% 3.9% 3.0% 2.1% 3.6% 2.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/24/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 38 40 44 49 49 47 47 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 43 48 48 46 46 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 43 43 41 41 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 36 36 34 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT