* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 29 30 29 26 25 20 20 18 17 18 22 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 29 30 29 26 25 20 20 18 17 18 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 22 18 20 18 17 19 20 22 24 29 27 39 36 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 1 -2 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 285 291 289 292 287 296 273 285 289 315 326 349 355 19 33 39 48 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 134 132 133 133 133 133 135 143 150 151 150 151 152 155 160 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 65 68 69 68 69 69 74 73 73 70 69 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 6 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 6 0 -5 -21 -33 -55 -59 -73 -70 -79 -69 -76 -68 -77 -39 200 MB DIV -21 -11 4 35 56 38 19 -12 0 15 9 -15 3 -34 -3 -15 -13 700-850 TADV 7 4 2 4 5 -4 -11 -13 -17 -10 -4 -6 -2 -5 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 2080 2142 2108 2097 2071 1999 1885 1736 1616 1535 1503 1494 1461 1423 1370 1284 1184 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.8 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.6 38.6 39.5 40.5 42.4 44.3 46.2 48.0 49.6 50.7 51.5 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 9 8 6 4 4 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 23 26 29 29 16 13 14 28 32 30 28 31 32 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 25. 30. 34. 35. 37. 36. 36. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 5. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.6 36.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.9% 4.0% 5.9% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 2.0% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/24/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 27 29 30 29 26 25 20 20 18 17 18 22 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 26 28 29 28 25 24 19 19 17 16 17 21 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 24 25 24 21 20 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT