* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 26 28 31 37 44 51 56 61 66 71 74 75 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 26 28 31 37 44 51 56 61 47 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 38 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 17 8 10 13 19 16 10 11 10 6 9 5 3 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 0 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 64 39 27 45 36 70 79 104 111 101 135 164 178 317 346 354 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.7 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 155 159 161 166 166 167 168 162 157 154 150 151 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 9 7 9 7 10 8 12 9 12 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 71 70 66 68 67 68 69 71 75 76 76 72 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 26 15 6 -6 -12 1 -6 9 23 34 40 36 21 12 7 4 200 MB DIV 108 100 107 117 125 71 57 33 14 30 55 57 47 16 19 22 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 658 641 621 604 567 481 366 262 179 105 36 -47 -146 -243 -295 -329 -349 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 12.0 13.1 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.6 98.8 98.9 99.1 99.3 99.5 99.4 99.1 98.8 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 4 4 6 5 4 3 4 3 5 6 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 21 23 26 26 33 34 33 33 26 21 22 13 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 24. 31. 35. 39. 42. 46. 49. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 0. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 17. 24. 31. 36. 42. 46. 51. 54. 55. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 98.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 16.7% 5.4% 3.1% 0.7% 7.1% 18.8% 29.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% Consensus: 0.4% 6.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2.4% 6.3% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##