* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 53 53 49 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 53 53 49 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 44 45 40 33 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 1 6 6 9 22 33 38 36 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 0 0 6 7 5 4 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 197 151 192 227 217 225 228 236 252 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.3 26.0 24.9 20.6 16.5 15.8 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 143 134 130 117 109 85 75 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -53.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 58 58 45 38 33 33 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 15 17 16 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 12 29 22 28 15 3 -48 -86 -110 -101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 21 44 34 43 56 63 27 27 12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 7 12 24 32 33 14 0 9 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1827 1800 1666 1506 1350 1037 807 869 1233 1307 706 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 16 17 20 22 22 23 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. -3. -8. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 18. 14. 15. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.5 49.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 12.0% 8.1% 6.6% 3.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 1.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 42 47 53 53 49 50 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 51 51 47 48 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 46 46 42 43 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 38 38 34 35 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT