* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 54 55 57 58 63 63 67 68 68 65 67 65 63 63 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 54 55 57 58 63 63 67 68 68 65 67 65 63 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 52 53 54 55 57 60 63 67 69 70 69 65 57 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 16 19 24 17 24 16 18 13 13 12 18 15 19 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 5 6 2 2 -5 -4 -2 -6 -2 0 1 9 9 6 SHEAR DIR 268 292 288 273 282 281 269 234 243 184 205 191 240 233 236 248 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.8 28.9 27.7 27.0 22.1 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 157 155 156 154 163 165 167 160 149 150 134 127 93 75 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 60 61 62 61 64 62 63 61 65 62 67 68 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 15 16 20 21 23 23 26 27 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -13 10 19 2 23 9 32 13 23 5 26 14 16 -12 49 67 200 MB DIV 15 7 15 45 25 15 -12 28 5 31 5 56 9 36 54 96 89 700-850 TADV 9 8 9 8 8 7 0 3 0 7 0 5 9 13 19 45 56 LAND (KM) 195 281 362 404 448 539 598 707 854 960 955 829 797 719 597 345 -4 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.5 24.0 25.0 26.7 28.3 30.1 32.0 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 69.7 69.0 68.3 67.6 66.5 65.7 65.7 66.6 67.4 67.9 67.9 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 7 9 9 10 10 11 12 19 30 34 HEAT CONTENT 75 87 77 72 75 79 62 51 40 43 44 20 16 12 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. 8. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 17. 17. 18. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 10. 12. 13. 18. 18. 22. 23. 23. 20. 22. 20. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.6 70.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.8% 10.9% 9.0% 6.3% 10.2% 11.5% 15.1% Logistic: 5.6% 12.6% 7.3% 7.6% 2.6% 6.6% 5.2% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 9.6% 6.1% 5.5% 3.0% 5.6% 5.6% 8.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 54 55 57 58 63 63 67 68 68 65 67 65 63 54 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 51 53 54 59 59 63 64 64 61 63 61 59 50 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 46 48 49 54 54 58 59 59 56 58 56 54 45 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 39 44 44 48 49 49 46 48 46 44 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT