* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 24 28 29 31 29 27 24 28 29 30 28 30 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 24 28 29 31 29 27 24 28 29 30 28 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 19 23 18 20 12 22 13 24 19 26 26 33 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 294 293 292 292 300 285 279 285 302 319 330 336 342 3 26 56 69 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 141 138 137 137 137 137 139 148 152 154 158 156 156 158 158 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 64 65 69 71 71 74 74 76 76 74 70 65 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 6 4 3 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 13 7 0 -11 -35 -43 -66 -68 -85 -76 -75 -70 -70 -90 -81 200 MB DIV -6 25 45 58 44 51 3 38 -13 35 9 16 -19 -17 -33 -29 -40 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 6 1 -1 -11 -10 -11 -6 -1 -2 -1 1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2003 1938 1902 1884 1873 1804 1728 1611 1516 1480 1487 1527 1583 1625 1603 1548 1449 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 20.3 21.7 23.3 24.5 25.8 27.1 28.3 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.6 40.6 41.5 42.4 44.2 45.8 47.5 49.1 50.4 51.5 52.3 52.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 4 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 34 35 34 44 33 14 26 33 30 27 25 23 23 23 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 36. 37. 37. 35. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -13. -15. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -14. -14. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 11. 9. 7. 4. 8. 9. 10. 8. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.1 38.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 2.9% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 24 28 29 31 29 27 24 28 29 30 28 30 33 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 22 26 27 29 27 25 22 26 27 28 26 28 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 23 24 26 24 22 19 23 24 25 23 25 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT