* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 24 26 28 34 42 49 54 57 62 66 71 74 75 75 76 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 26 28 34 42 49 54 57 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 35 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 6 8 10 12 15 11 9 12 7 4 7 5 8 9 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 -3 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 37 23 36 24 27 50 101 116 140 180 213 240 284 334 337 353 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.2 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 155 158 160 164 167 167 168 165 157 154 150 150 153 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 8 11 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 70 67 67 67 67 71 74 78 79 75 73 71 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 10 9 0 -15 -6 -6 8 18 38 46 41 29 12 18 3 17 200 MB DIV 88 101 113 120 100 53 15 1 46 76 89 48 38 6 9 39 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 639 621 593 567 522 416 288 179 110 51 -22 -146 -263 -278 -323 -377 -320 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.8 14.0 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.7 17.9 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.3 99.5 99.8 99.6 99.2 98.8 98.6 98.7 98.9 99.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 7 5 4 2 4 5 7 7 6 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 23 27 27 32 35 33 34 29 21 20 4 16 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 38. 41. 45. 48. 49. 51. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 14. 22. 29. 34. 37. 42. 46. 51. 54. 55. 55. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.3 98.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 28.1% 12.2% 8.2% 1.7% 13.5% 26.7% 36.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.3% Consensus: 1.0% 9.6% 4.1% 2.7% 0.6% 4.5% 8.9% 13.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##