* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 28 30 32 34 41 46 51 55 58 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 28 30 32 34 41 46 51 55 58 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 21 24 28 32 36 39 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 23 18 14 15 9 8 4 1 6 6 8 11 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 293 287 292 297 296 267 311 293 13 287 287 266 327 339 14 44 76 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 138 141 140 137 140 142 145 147 144 143 142 140 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 62 63 66 71 71 74 73 71 65 62 56 53 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 5 7 8 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 5 -4 -8 -29 -49 -68 -76 -67 -65 -66 -47 -33 -36 -46 -52 200 MB DIV 14 48 43 17 19 16 -3 -10 10 0 2 -10 -33 -30 -46 -39 -49 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 1 -1 -4 -8 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1968 1922 1895 1878 1819 1761 1657 1614 1611 1645 1671 1731 1767 1789 1797 1790 1767 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.2 21.8 23.5 25.0 26.3 27.3 28.0 28.6 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.2 42.2 43.1 44.0 45.5 47.1 48.3 49.2 49.6 49.9 49.7 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 7 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 29 35 34 38 44 28 14 18 21 27 25 20 18 17 17 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 32. 34. 33. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.0 40.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 4.2% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 23 25 28 30 32 34 41 46 51 55 58 58 59 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 23 26 28 30 32 39 44 49 53 56 56 57 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 19 22 24 26 28 35 40 45 49 52 52 53 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT