* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 26 32 36 43 49 57 62 61 63 62 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 26 32 36 43 49 57 62 61 63 62 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 29 33 37 42 44 46 49 54 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 9 10 14 13 19 15 17 17 17 18 17 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -4 -2 3 6 1 0 0 -1 1 -3 -1 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 35 51 36 34 90 115 100 91 87 89 85 85 68 74 39 18 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 154 156 157 158 159 160 160 162 164 169 168 168 167 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 6 9 7 9 6 9 7 11 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 66 67 68 69 69 70 69 73 72 71 69 73 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 9 10 12 14 13 12 10 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 0 -17 -19 1 -5 8 18 31 32 20 16 2 -16 -19 -13 200 MB DIV 77 81 90 78 77 46 19 29 56 80 68 51 27 40 31 58 43 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 2 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 606 581 539 511 467 367 298 288 308 323 317 256 168 105 64 60 45 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.7 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.6 14.4 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.2 98.2 98.3 98.3 98.2 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.9 99.4 99.9 100.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 2 3 4 6 6 5 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 18 17 18 21 22 23 24 27 31 32 34 34 34 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 33. 38. 42. 46. 50. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 9. 11. 8. 7. 4. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 16. 23. 29. 37. 42. 41. 43. 42. 43. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 98.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 12.2% 4.6% 2.7% 0.9% 7.5% 3.3% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 2.5% 1.1% 3.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##