* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 34 38 38 35 31 31 30 32 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 34 38 38 35 31 31 30 32 32 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 24 23 22 21 20 21 22 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 20 18 16 22 19 28 29 32 24 26 19 22 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -8 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 352 353 348 352 4 360 18 21 33 30 44 40 50 31 35 43 46 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.5 28.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 162 168 169 168 168 169 164 159 156 154 153 157 156 160 150 160 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 54 57 59 60 59 65 65 66 65 64 65 63 62 63 61 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -51 -40 -35 -27 -19 -18 -29 -39 -72 -84 -89 -82 -76 -91 -73 -61 200 MB DIV 38 45 15 9 34 5 32 -3 -1 -27 -2 9 3 0 5 -10 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 5 4 6 2 1 -2 -5 -5 -7 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 324 281 225 173 125 80 97 108 177 266 306 305 243 232 231 105 4 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.4 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.4 16.2 17.4 18.9 19.9 20.6 20.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 58.8 59.2 59.6 60.0 60.5 60.7 60.7 60.7 60.8 61.4 62.1 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 3 3 6 6 7 4 4 5 7 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 62 63 63 62 61 60 65 80 62 60 61 57 58 55 78 57 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 21. 29. 36. 42. 46. 50. 52. 51. 51. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -18. -26. -29. -32. -33. -33. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 18. 15. 11. 11. 10. 12. 12. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.9 58.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 21.3% 13.2% 2.4% 0.8% 4.7% 6.1% 15.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 1.8% 7.5% 4.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 2.1% 5.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 29 34 38 38 35 31 31 30 32 32 32 33 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 27 32 36 36 33 29 29 28 30 30 30 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 23 28 32 32 29 25 25 24 26 26 26 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT