* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 52 54 53 59 62 68 69 72 69 69 63 62 59 63 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 52 54 53 59 62 68 69 72 69 69 63 62 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 53 53 54 54 56 58 61 62 61 58 54 50 44 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 26 26 17 26 15 17 13 12 15 22 16 22 18 27 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 0 1 3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 291 275 288 302 287 256 226 231 177 216 194 250 243 252 234 250 239 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.5 28.6 27.6 27.0 22.0 18.0 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 156 156 157 162 171 171 169 160 146 133 127 92 82 74 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.3 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 62 64 61 66 61 63 59 63 63 69 72 67 76 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 11 12 15 16 19 19 21 21 22 21 23 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 -4 4 19 2 31 14 20 -3 13 -19 -22 -32 41 155 113 200 MB DIV 24 32 35 25 24 14 40 8 28 17 17 11 27 31 83 120 128 700-850 TADV 8 5 8 9 8 -4 2 -3 7 0 5 2 21 33 53 77 112 LAND (KM) 300 351 406 439 475 559 627 760 874 991 861 776 720 568 345 51 405 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.6 24.2 25.8 27.3 29.0 31.0 33.2 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 68.6 67.9 67.5 67.0 66.3 66.1 66.7 67.4 68.0 68.3 67.8 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 5 3 6 8 9 9 10 13 15 17 26 37 41 HEAT CONTENT 86 77 73 76 78 77 70 43 49 47 31 17 12 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 7. 2. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 3. 4. 7. 7. 10. 9. 9. 6. 8. 4. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 9. 12. 18. 19. 22. 19. 19. 13. 12. 9. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.3 69.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.1% 11.0% 8.9% 6.5% 10.0% 12.7% 15.6% Logistic: 4.1% 7.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 4.0% 4.5% 7.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 3.5% 8.2% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 4.7% 5.8% 7.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 52 54 53 59 62 68 69 72 69 69 63 62 59 54 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 51 50 56 59 65 66 69 66 66 60 59 56 51 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 48 47 53 56 62 63 66 63 63 57 56 53 48 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 41 47 50 56 57 60 57 57 51 50 47 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT