* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 41 45 47 50 50 50 49 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 41 45 47 50 50 50 49 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 34 37 40 43 44 45 44 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 20 15 8 15 4 11 5 11 5 10 12 19 25 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 -2 0 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 293 290 291 299 272 284 291 306 254 272 261 331 17 21 33 43 39 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 139 142 137 137 139 146 148 148 145 143 140 141 143 146 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 61 62 68 70 71 71 72 69 67 60 57 55 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 4 -5 -22 -47 -57 -67 -59 -59 -59 -59 -72 -78 -74 -65 -52 200 MB DIV 33 27 13 7 24 0 37 4 26 -7 -1 -23 -24 -32 -43 -45 -25 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 -2 -3 -6 -4 -10 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1970 1917 1851 1808 1767 1691 1658 1640 1671 1712 1769 1808 1811 1810 1823 1766 1651 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.4 24.1 25.8 27.0 28.2 29.1 29.8 30.2 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.9 43.9 44.8 45.6 47.0 48.3 49.4 50.1 50.5 50.5 50.4 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 7 5 5 3 2 1 0 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 37 27 19 14 16 25 25 22 21 20 18 18 19 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 26. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.3 41.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 13.7% 9.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 2.4% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.5% 5.6% 3.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.6% 4.4% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 41 45 47 50 50 50 49 48 48 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 43 45 48 48 48 47 46 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 27 31 35 39 41 44 44 44 43 42 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 24 28 32 34 37 37 37 36 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT