* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 55 68 74 77 76 74 70 68 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 55 68 74 77 76 74 70 68 67 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 47 48 47 47 48 49 51 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 24 25 22 12 6 6 6 3 5 8 10 8 7 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 2 0 0 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 56 59 58 60 50 78 6 358 346 191 265 273 294 296 283 261 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.8 27.6 26.0 24.5 24.3 24.7 25.3 26.2 26.5 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 150 152 154 153 154 142 127 112 109 112 117 123 127 116 108 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 84 83 85 84 82 70 65 59 53 49 49 45 51 59 59 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 17 21 26 27 28 28 26 25 23 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 56 63 78 92 68 50 33 58 69 91 77 69 44 26 23 200 MB DIV 93 122 101 95 116 138 96 29 28 1 3 -29 -28 -13 -1 19 22 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -2 -3 0 6 3 -3 -4 -3 0 5 5 LAND (KM) 1162 1207 1221 1226 1220 1142 1066 1059 1181 1454 1881 2146 1910 1780 1681 1529 1376 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.7 15.6 17.7 19.3 19.9 19.2 17.7 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.9 112.6 113.1 113.6 114.8 116.6 118.9 122.2 126.4 130.9 134.5 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 8 10 15 16 19 21 20 17 12 5 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 28 38 43 18 21 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 22. 24. 23. 20. 16. 13. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 30. 43. 49. 52. 51. 49. 45. 43. 42. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 110.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 9.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 8.4% 1.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##