* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 37 44 48 47 45 41 36 34 46 47 47 44 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 37 44 48 47 45 41 36 34 46 47 47 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 36 37 36 34 32 31 33 37 37 36 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 9 15 14 17 15 16 19 24 25 20 9 12 19 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 4 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -5 0 -7 -4 -2 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 190 213 217 208 223 236 285 311 330 341 340 340 322 310 228 232 240 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.5 24.0 21.8 21.5 20.2 20.9 21.8 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 133 127 121 117 113 110 105 99 97 88 88 84 87 91 85 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 56 51 44 41 41 43 49 53 49 42 40 40 43 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 11 12 10 8 6 5 4 13 13 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 21 7 6 -7 -58 -71 -72 -85 -95 -82 -95 -81 -44 32 77 200 MB DIV 16 34 36 45 26 18 -19 12 -16 -21 -35 0 -10 -8 18 53 40 700-850 TADV 4 9 18 18 22 11 7 4 2 5 5 15 16 12 -8 -11 -21 LAND (KM) 1716 1609 1497 1379 1284 1150 1083 1023 970 952 965 1102 1432 1547 1042 519 -9 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.6 33.7 34.9 36.0 37.9 39.2 40.3 41.3 42.1 43.0 44.2 44.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 48.5 48.2 47.8 47.1 45.6 44.5 43.9 43.5 42.9 41.9 39.2 34.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 10 7 5 5 4 8 15 20 22 24 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. 2. 2. -1. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 17. 15. 11. 6. 4. 16. 17. 17. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.0% 8.8% 5.5% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.4% 3.8% 2.1% 0.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 37 44 48 47 45 41 36 34 46 47 47 44 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 47 46 44 40 35 33 45 46 46 43 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 42 41 39 35 30 28 40 41 41 38 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 34 33 31 27 22 20 32 33 33 30 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT