* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 53 57 64 70 77 83 83 87 80 76 68 64 65 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 53 57 64 70 77 83 83 87 80 76 68 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 51 52 55 59 64 70 73 73 69 59 45 34 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 24 18 21 16 13 9 5 7 13 13 24 30 53 61 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 5 0 -1 2 -2 2 0 4 0 6 5 1 -1 -13 SHEAR DIR 274 284 288 281 253 245 201 149 163 163 195 188 206 226 236 235 239 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.0 28.2 27.9 24.2 18.8 13.0 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 157 157 159 170 171 171 167 152 141 138 104 82 74 72 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -51.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 62 61 61 61 60 59 62 60 62 57 64 73 80 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 14 14 16 19 22 24 26 29 29 33 32 33 29 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 16 29 29 29 37 30 24 15 25 20 -13 48 145 133 94 200 MB DIV 27 40 40 42 37 43 23 10 55 6 48 62 96 73 119 114 108 700-850 TADV 7 10 12 10 1 9 -1 2 4 3 13 9 28 49 76 46 20 LAND (KM) 346 403 460 492 524 593 696 807 957 940 807 791 667 412 130 178 727 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.9 25.1 26.5 28.4 30.3 32.1 34.3 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.6 67.9 67.1 66.9 66.6 66.2 66.5 67.3 67.6 67.9 68.1 67.2 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 3 3 4 7 9 10 9 10 14 19 26 31 34 34 HEAT CONTENT 77 73 77 80 81 75 55 44 46 47 21 14 25 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 5. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 22. 19. 19. 13. 3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 27. 33. 33. 37. 30. 26. 18. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.5 68.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 13.4% 9.0% 7.5% 5.0% 9.3% 12.3% 16.4% Logistic: 1.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 3.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 5.6% 3.4% 2.7% 1.7% 3.6% 5.1% 6.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 51 53 57 64 70 77 83 83 87 80 76 68 52 54 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 52 56 63 69 76 82 82 86 79 75 67 51 53 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 48 52 59 65 72 78 78 82 75 71 63 47 49 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 53 59 66 72 72 76 69 65 57 41 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT