* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 59 69 75 76 74 73 68 63 62 58 56 54 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 59 69 75 76 74 73 68 63 62 58 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 48 51 52 54 55 57 58 53 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 20 18 17 8 11 7 2 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 3 2 2 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 55 49 45 42 65 74 45 8 356 289 294 311 297 301 292 261 235 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 27.6 25.5 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 24.5 23.3 23.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 150 150 153 156 142 121 115 121 126 121 120 108 96 99 101 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 82 83 85 83 84 78 69 64 59 55 52 54 57 59 52 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 21 24 25 26 26 27 25 23 22 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 73 79 94 78 63 49 58 68 72 64 38 21 22 18 25 200 MB DIV 139 130 102 117 119 128 88 20 20 25 2 -26 -11 -9 -3 4 17 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -5 -6 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 0 -4 3 2 3 4 1 LAND (KM) 1237 1297 1322 1295 1262 1248 1258 1386 1612 1917 2163 2312 2206 2074 1906 1736 1580 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.2 14.6 16.4 17.7 18.1 17.4 16.5 15.8 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.9 114.7 115.5 116.2 118.0 120.2 123.2 126.7 129.9 132.1 133.3 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 10 10 13 15 16 16 15 9 5 6 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 17 13 14 20 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. 35. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 22. 18. 14. 12. 8. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 34. 44. 50. 51. 49. 48. 43. 38. 37. 33. 31. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 112.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.4% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 6.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 3.3% 12.3% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 9.0% 5.5% 0.2% 0.1% 7.8% 9.9% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##