* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 36 37 39 39 38 35 33 31 29 29 32 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 36 37 39 39 38 35 33 31 29 29 32 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 33 32 30 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 18 17 12 15 15 16 19 30 46 45 43 35 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -3 0 2 -13 -4 -6 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 197 206 207 216 243 246 308 325 339 334 345 351 6 8 20 45 51 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 26.0 25.7 26.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 130 122 119 116 113 111 109 108 109 112 111 119 134 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.4 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 57 52 50 44 46 47 51 54 52 48 45 42 38 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 1 0 -4 -39 -65 -69 -71 -82 -76 -83 -77 -78 -102 -98 -106 200 MB DIV 31 35 19 18 23 -2 -13 -2 -22 0 -37 -46 -125 -79 -50 -33 9 700-850 TADV 7 9 15 16 12 8 4 1 3 1 8 4 0 4 -4 2 -5 LAND (KM) 1629 1512 1403 1300 1229 1136 1099 1062 1028 1011 1064 1208 1358 1533 1685 1808 1853 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.5 34.6 35.7 36.6 38.1 38.9 39.5 39.9 40.3 40.3 39.4 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 48.5 48.1 47.6 46.9 45.5 44.7 44.4 44.4 44.1 43.2 42.0 41.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 10 8 4 3 2 2 5 7 9 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 5 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.4 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.2% 7.7% 4.6% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/25/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 33 34 36 37 39 39 38 35 33 31 29 29 32 35 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 32 34 35 37 37 36 33 31 29 27 27 30 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 32 34 34 33 30 28 26 24 24 27 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 24 26 26 25 22 20 18 16 16 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT