* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 54 55 62 67 75 78 84 81 84 79 74 67 69 75 V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 54 55 62 67 75 78 84 81 84 79 74 57 59 66 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 51 52 54 58 62 68 73 77 77 71 56 42 33 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 16 23 23 12 13 10 4 5 8 13 28 38 68 98 103 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 3 1 0 0 -1 1 2 4 7 -1 10 -8 -27 -30 SHEAR DIR 285 298 277 253 254 200 197 131 207 114 221 210 242 247 271 271 269 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.7 28.6 27.8 26.2 20.9 15.3 12.9 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 156 157 166 170 171 171 164 146 137 120 88 76 73 71 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -51.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 61 61 63 61 63 60 64 64 62 58 58 67 74 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 19 20 23 24 27 27 31 30 30 25 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 27 31 17 39 28 38 7 27 23 38 7 4 56 73 48 200 MB DIV 27 50 47 50 47 34 7 40 16 31 31 45 51 86 65 36 82 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 0 2 3 0 3 0 4 15 21 34 64 68 99 82 LAND (KM) 375 415 460 485 510 578 686 787 962 875 756 737 539 258 -44 445 986 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.3 24.1 25.4 26.8 28.8 30.8 32.9 35.5 38.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.2 67.7 67.1 66.9 66.7 66.9 67.5 68.1 68.2 68.3 68.2 66.9 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 3 6 7 9 10 10 12 17 22 29 32 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 73 73 77 80 81 80 46 48 48 34 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9. 15. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 14. 19. 17. 22. 20. 18. 10. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 12. 17. 25. 28. 34. 31. 34. 29. 24. 17. 19. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.6 68.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.1% 8.8% 7.4% 4.8% 9.6% 12.4% 16.9% Logistic: 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.8% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 3.5% 4.7% 6.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 52 54 55 62 67 75 78 84 81 84 79 74 57 59 66 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 54 61 66 74 77 83 80 83 78 73 56 58 65 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 56 61 69 72 78 75 78 73 68 51 53 60 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 48 53 61 64 70 67 70 65 60 43 45 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT