* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 28 36 44 51 56 60 63 67 69 71 72 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 28 36 44 51 56 42 32 28 31 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 27 31 35 31 28 27 32 36 40 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 14 11 9 7 7 8 2 6 6 8 11 8 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 2 0 1 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 24 18 16 19 16 45 39 84 82 27 27 334 333 323 346 333 13 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.7 30.7 29.5 29.3 30.1 31.0 30.4 30.1 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 163 163 161 162 164 169 170 159 156 164 169 168 165 170 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 11 9 11 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 69 69 68 72 72 75 73 70 65 64 61 60 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -29 -19 -15 -21 -29 -3 10 32 45 43 22 31 14 18 -5 -1 200 MB DIV 46 43 61 50 26 17 21 48 63 30 15 -3 23 -7 0 8 14 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 -6 -3 -1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 563 527 489 443 418 347 277 217 150 45 -71 -132 -62 52 150 148 16 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.6 18.9 20.1 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.1 102.5 103.0 103.8 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 45 55 61 56 45 40 37 35 23 19 28 37 27 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 42. 45. 48. 52. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 43. 47. 49. 51. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 101.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 4.0% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.4% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##