* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 45 54 60 66 68 66 66 62 61 60 58 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 45 54 60 66 68 66 66 62 61 60 58 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 45 47 49 51 51 51 50 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 22 16 15 14 11 8 3 5 6 5 4 7 11 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 0 3 -1 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 3 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 49 46 57 50 66 32 29 344 306 278 276 321 296 299 268 271 267 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.4 26.9 25.6 25.4 25.4 24.9 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 151 154 155 153 149 133 120 118 118 113 106 110 109 109 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 84 82 73 68 66 61 56 51 47 47 46 45 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 16 19 21 22 24 24 24 25 23 23 21 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 64 80 83 92 97 83 82 64 57 42 58 50 56 60 65 45 35 200 MB DIV 125 116 130 124 133 121 71 22 24 33 11 -13 -17 2 6 33 4 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 1 6 5 0 8 LAND (KM) 1328 1342 1329 1336 1354 1444 1499 1596 1703 1852 2038 2197 1959 1682 1401 1135 897 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 14 13 15 16 15 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 36. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 16. 18. 18. 18. 15. 13. 11. 7. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 29. 35. 41. 43. 41. 41. 37. 36. 35. 33. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 114.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 6.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 2.4% 7.6% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 9.3% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% 7.3% 8.1% 2.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% 6.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##