* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 46 48 51 58 64 71 77 78 78 78 72 68 62 61 73 V (KT) LAND 45 44 46 48 51 58 64 71 77 78 78 78 72 68 62 61 73 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 44 45 48 53 58 64 71 75 72 64 52 41 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 14 19 22 17 16 9 7 4 5 11 25 31 33 34 46 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 2 -6 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 4 -5 8 14 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 303 284 251 255 249 187 120 122 85 199 261 255 261 265 283 233 208 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 30.2 30.3 29.0 28.1 27.0 25.2 19.9 14.9 15.0 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 159 161 166 165 171 171 153 140 128 111 84 75 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -50.1 -49.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.9 -50.1 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.4 1.0 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 61 60 61 62 60 60 61 61 66 61 65 72 80 78 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 16 16 18 21 23 25 28 28 28 30 29 28 25 22 28 850 MB ENV VOR 2 21 29 18 23 51 45 44 42 36 43 -2 -10 24 147 210 235 200 MB DIV 36 46 59 39 32 51 11 28 15 -7 40 24 40 92 136 145 192 700-850 TADV 8 7 0 5 7 1 1 2 1 9 9 31 23 97 103 -38 -132 LAND (KM) 319 355 392 426 460 545 662 771 920 817 744 646 451 315 109 706 1105 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.7 23.0 24.0 25.4 27.1 28.8 31.0 33.8 36.9 40.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.0 67.6 67.3 67.2 67.1 67.5 68.2 68.8 69.1 68.9 67.9 65.7 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 6 9 9 9 13 16 20 24 26 30 32 32 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 71 75 79 72 38 49 50 26 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 10. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 13. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 15. 15. 17. 14. 12. 7. 1. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 6. 13. 19. 26. 32. 33. 33. 33. 27. 23. 17. 16. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.0 68.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.9% 11.4% 9.0% 7.1% 11.2% 14.0% 30.1% Logistic: 1.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.4% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.5% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4% 4.1% 5.1% 11.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 54.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 46 48 51 58 64 71 77 78 78 78 72 68 62 61 73 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 51 58 64 71 77 78 78 78 72 68 62 61 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 53 59 66 72 73 73 73 67 63 57 56 68 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 51 58 64 65 65 65 59 55 49 48 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT