* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 36 44 52 57 61 62 62 59 53 51 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 36 44 52 57 61 62 62 59 53 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 32 37 42 46 49 50 49 46 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 12 9 5 10 4 5 7 6 9 19 28 38 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 -1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 285 257 246 261 302 290 6 4 334 277 328 334 13 48 71 73 72 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 142 142 142 141 143 149 150 149 147 143 141 140 144 152 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 62 65 67 67 69 69 71 68 65 57 54 50 50 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 7 8 9 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -16 -26 -35 -43 -64 -75 -69 -58 -56 -32 -26 -20 -21 -31 -40 -16 200 MB DIV -16 12 13 -16 5 -12 24 15 16 7 -23 -18 -24 -53 -43 -17 -4 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -4 0 -3 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1753 1695 1668 1630 1598 1570 1554 1567 1590 1616 1659 1725 1762 1772 1701 1578 1405 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.7 24.1 25.2 26.0 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.4 46.1 46.8 47.4 48.3 49.1 49.5 49.7 49.7 49.5 49.1 48.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 46 39 18 18 26 28 31 31 29 24 22 21 25 29 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -5. -6. -9. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 32. 36. 37. 37. 34. 28. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.8 44.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.2% 7.6% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3% 2.8% 5.2% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.4% 5.5% 3.7% 2.1% 0.1% 1.0% 5.4% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 36 44 52 57 61 62 62 59 53 51 51 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 34 42 50 55 59 60 60 57 51 49 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 31 39 47 52 56 57 57 54 48 46 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 24 32 40 45 49 50 50 47 41 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT