* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 08/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 52 53 61 62 71 74 68 55 42 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 52 53 61 62 71 74 41 31 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 40 44 48 52 54 35 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 2 2 7 16 14 19 18 10 8 14 25 26 42 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 7 6 1 0 -4 0 0 1 4 6 0 3 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 27 60 97 42 8 298 322 285 306 280 292 243 202 199 220 235 266 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.1 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.6 30.6 29.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 166 164 164 161 161 161 170 170 171 172 173 173 172 161 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 -50.7 -50.1 -49.7 -50.3 -50.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 0 3 1 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 67 65 66 67 64 65 68 73 75 69 60 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 8 9 12 12 18 18 23 27 25 18 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 42 30 17 38 36 51 10 38 23 75 45 53 11 -23 -60 200 MB DIV 23 42 48 42 24 42 34 55 53 82 37 87 77 113 64 35 38 700-850 TADV 4 1 3 3 0 -1 0 0 1 4 10 12 15 13 7 18 12 LAND (KM) 223 234 200 176 155 119 109 79 113 216 369 281 6 -256 -332 -404 -251 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.5 21.0 22.1 23.5 25.2 27.3 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.3 85.5 85.6 85.7 85.9 85.9 86.0 86.0 86.1 86.4 86.2 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 5 3 2 1 1 4 6 8 10 11 15 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 49 49 48 45 45 45 57 107 157 71 42 5 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 2. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. 38. 35. 32. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 5. 5. 12. 13. 19. 23. 19. 8. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 32. 33. 41. 42. 51. 54. 48. 35. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.0 85.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 23.6% 13.6% 7.3% 2.6% 12.6% 11.5% 25.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 1.8% 8.9% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 4.3% 3.8% 8.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 08/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 52 53 61 62 71 74 41 31 28 28 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 41 51 52 60 61 70 73 40 30 27 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 36 46 47 55 56 65 68 35 25 22 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT