* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 36 47 57 65 65 66 71 75 78 79 79 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 36 47 57 65 53 38 38 42 45 45 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 36 42 39 32 33 39 43 46 50 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 10 6 5 4 6 5 9 7 10 10 5 1 6 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 22 22 9 5 1 16 119 137 145 175 190 223 253 19 170 205 201 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.6 29.7 29.7 30.5 29.8 30.5 29.6 27.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 162 162 161 163 168 170 161 161 170 163 170 161 139 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 7 10 7 11 7 11 7 9 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 69 69 73 70 73 70 67 64 65 61 61 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 8 7 9 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -21 -29 -35 -43 -30 -17 10 39 55 53 45 53 47 33 6 17 200 MB DIV 24 43 44 39 11 22 34 41 41 37 5 8 -24 -13 -8 2 23 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 5 1 1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 507 468 437 401 375 307 250 174 71 -15 -63 42 202 70 30 19 16 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.6 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.0 102.2 102.3 102.4 102.6 102.7 102.9 103.2 103.8 104.6 105.9 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 47 55 59 58 47 41 39 38 27 25 33 25 23 17 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 11. 18. 25. 29. 33. 36. 41. 46. 49. 53. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 6. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 37. 45. 45. 46. 51. 55. 58. 59. 59. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 101.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 10.1% 4.6% 2.4% 1.0% 6.0% 12.2% 29.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 3.4% Consensus: 0.3% 4.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 2.0% 4.6% 10.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##