* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 59 64 68 65 62 61 59 57 56 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 59 64 68 65 62 61 59 57 56 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 42 44 44 45 47 48 48 47 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 17 15 12 11 7 4 5 6 8 4 10 6 11 14 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -5 0 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 38 48 49 44 27 356 308 310 282 311 281 277 287 266 259 270 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.0 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.7 24.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 153 154 149 144 135 120 122 121 114 114 113 110 112 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 81 78 71 67 61 53 47 45 42 40 39 41 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 16 18 19 23 25 26 27 26 24 24 23 20 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 80 87 99 109 106 89 77 74 70 70 76 85 97 103 86 74 75 200 MB DIV 105 115 128 132 123 90 39 42 21 -3 -20 0 -7 -3 30 35 19 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 -5 1 1 6 2 1 6 LAND (KM) 1404 1412 1430 1466 1509 1548 1590 1708 1835 2012 2222 2021 1712 1495 1330 1060 659 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 12 13 12 9 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 14 15 15 11 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 373 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 37. 36. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 18. 16. 15. 12. 8. 5. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 34. 39. 43. 40. 37. 36. 34. 32. 31. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 115.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 5.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 1.9% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.8% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 6.2% 5.7% 1.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 6.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##