* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 26 29 30 27 23 19 22 23 28 31 34 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 26 29 30 27 23 19 22 23 28 31 34 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 19 21 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 17 19 19 20 28 26 32 26 26 20 16 11 11 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 354 2 4 357 5 1 24 23 27 24 48 50 68 39 94 104 112 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 162 156 151 160 162 158 153 152 152 154 158 160 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 65 65 66 67 70 70 70 71 68 66 63 61 59 57 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 23 26 35 37 3 -31 -87 -92 -106 -96 -92 -87 -75 -50 -40 -27 200 MB DIV 72 78 62 43 53 -6 20 -9 17 -5 -18 -13 -11 -24 23 -24 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 5 5 4 5 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 176 146 147 171 180 263 430 575 677 730 736 709 681 602 507 393 290 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.4 19.0 20.9 22.4 23.5 24.1 24.3 24.2 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.0 60.1 60.1 60.0 59.7 59.5 59.5 59.6 59.7 60.0 60.4 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 6 8 9 9 6 5 2 1 2 2 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 62 68 74 58 76 72 44 31 29 30 33 46 63 56 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 37. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -12. -19. -25. -25. -26. -25. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 7. 3. -1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.0 59.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 21 22 26 29 30 27 23 19 22 23 28 31 34 38 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 24 27 28 25 21 17 20 21 26 29 32 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 21 24 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT