* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL072023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 35 35 37 36 33 30 27 25 24 21 20 20 25 31 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 35 35 37 36 33 30 27 25 24 21 20 20 25 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 28 27 27 25 24 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 17 15 15 15 16 18 23 29 33 41 53 57 34 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 -6 -6 -11 -5 -1 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 194 215 225 234 243 302 307 325 331 340 341 337 339 3 2 338 198 SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.9 23.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 125 122 120 116 109 106 103 104 107 109 112 110 107 114 102 88 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -52.9 -51.4 -51.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 47 46 47 47 51 53 49 51 49 45 39 44 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 8 6 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -4 -7 -25 -62 -68 -88 -95 -80 -95 -95 -88 -117 -68 -55 -103 200 MB DIV 41 14 9 20 6 9 0 -21 -14 -40 -52 -61 -66 -28 -7 4 1 700-850 TADV 13 18 20 14 10 7 1 4 4 8 2 -1 -4 -1 8 19 -28 LAND (KM) 1417 1311 1227 1158 1110 1051 1009 949 925 964 1060 1177 1288 1317 1287 1353 1647 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 35.3 36.2 37.0 37.7 38.7 39.3 39.9 40.4 40.6 40.2 39.2 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.8 48.3 47.8 47.1 46.1 45.8 45.9 45.5 44.5 43.4 42.8 42.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 4 3 3 3 5 5 6 5 1 14 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 12. 10. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -5. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.3 48.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 12.6% 8.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.8% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 35 35 37 36 33 30 27 25 24 21 20 20 25 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 34 36 35 32 29 26 24 23 20 19 19 24 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 29 31 30 27 24 21 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT