* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 49 53 58 65 69 72 76 77 75 71 72 82 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 49 53 58 65 69 72 76 77 75 71 72 82 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 46 49 52 56 61 66 69 68 64 59 54 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 25 16 14 11 12 6 7 8 11 22 34 50 59 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -5 0 1 -2 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 262 266 255 199 191 128 172 116 244 232 260 240 207 197 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.8 30.4 29.9 28.6 28.1 27.2 24.3 19.1 13.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 161 162 167 165 171 168 146 140 130 105 82 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 2.2 1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 62 64 61 61 55 60 60 63 63 67 61 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 18 19 22 22 23 25 26 26 27 31 38 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 1 19 33 18 32 14 22 21 19 5 59 130 101 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 62 12 26 55 21 9 -2 8 34 26 43 119 154 102 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 9 13 7 2 7 -1 -2 4 8 19 4 -34 -80 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 379 427 450 475 562 687 797 887 773 749 648 447 255 282 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.1 24.3 26.0 27.6 29.8 32.0 34.2 37.1 40.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.4 67.0 66.7 66.8 67.0 67.8 68.6 69.2 69.1 68.6 67.7 65.3 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 8 9 10 11 12 15 21 26 29 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 68 68 76 80 61 38 50 44 19 14 19 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 17. 26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 27. 31. 32. 30. 26. 28. 37. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.8 67.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 15.2% 10.1% 8.0% 5.9% 10.3% 13.4% 26.2% Logistic: 2.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 1.8% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.4% 4.0% 2.9% 2.0% 3.9% 5.1% 9.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 49 53 58 65 69 72 76 77 75 71 72 82 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 48 52 57 64 68 71 75 76 74 70 71 81 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 53 60 64 67 71 72 70 66 67 77 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 44 51 55 58 62 63 61 57 58 68 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT