* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 39 47 52 54 57 60 62 61 59 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 39 47 52 54 57 60 62 61 59 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 40 43 45 47 48 48 47 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 12 6 13 8 11 6 10 6 15 19 36 35 49 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -1 0 0 0 -5 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 248 274 330 12 349 6 331 278 318 295 349 25 41 50 35 22 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 144 144 146 149 151 150 148 148 145 143 141 139 135 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 65 66 70 72 74 72 69 61 53 50 50 50 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -24 -37 -48 -59 -77 -72 -74 -61 -45 -28 -20 -8 -21 -10 0 1 200 MB DIV 11 3 -12 14 27 -6 35 5 10 -14 -41 -37 -57 -46 4 -18 -27 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 0 -1 -4 0 0 1 0 1 2 4 5 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 1670 1612 1565 1530 1519 1508 1536 1569 1620 1657 1716 1760 1790 1828 1856 1870 1869 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.3 26.4 27.1 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.9 46.9 47.6 48.3 48.8 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.2 50.0 49.6 49.2 48.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 22 19 24 33 33 35 32 28 23 20 19 17 15 19 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 22. 27. 29. 32. 35. 37. 36. 34. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.8 45.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 15.5% 10.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 11.8% 8.9% 4.6% 1.2% 10.1% 10.6% 12.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 3.5% 9.3% 6.7% 3.9% 0.4% 3.6% 7.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 32 39 47 52 54 57 60 62 61 59 57 55 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 30 37 45 50 52 55 58 60 59 57 55 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 33 41 46 48 51 54 56 55 53 51 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 25 33 38 40 43 46 48 47 45 43 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT