* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 25 32 41 50 60 63 72 76 79 67 53 45 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 25 32 41 50 60 63 72 76 65 39 31 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 38 42 46 51 45 32 28 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 2 1 3 15 12 21 17 20 9 6 12 21 32 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 3 -1 -2 -2 3 -3 6 -1 5 3 0 2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 63 117 70 347 265 304 297 299 299 301 260 258 197 218 226 261 269 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.6 30.4 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.5 29.2 28.6 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 160 158 155 154 152 160 170 171 173 174 173 157 147 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -51.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 2 4 1 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 68 67 66 65 69 64 65 64 72 73 76 67 61 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 8 8 10 12 16 17 22 24 27 20 12 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 30 17 31 36 53 34 26 27 54 59 55 14 0 -67 -42 200 MB DIV 41 49 45 23 26 43 47 75 68 58 56 52 140 83 44 20 43 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 0 1 0 0 1 4 6 9 7 25 15 23 17 29 LAND (KM) 209 167 125 95 72 48 29 12 96 222 405 255 -59 -234 -327 -275 -23 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.3 22.4 23.6 25.4 27.5 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.8 85.9 86.1 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.7 86.7 86.8 86.7 86.0 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 2 2 1 2 4 5 8 10 13 16 15 14 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 45 42 39 37 35 32 41 82 154 65 33 6 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. 37. 34. 31. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 18. 19. 22. 12. -1. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 21. 30. 40. 43. 52. 56. 60. 47. 33. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.0 85.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 23.9% 11.0% 3.3% 1.5% 10.2% 20.2% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 5.2% Consensus: 1.8% 9.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.5% 3.5% 6.7% 9.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 08/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 25 32 41 50 60 63 72 76 65 39 31 28 28 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 23 30 39 48 58 61 70 74 63 37 29 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 20 27 36 45 55 58 67 71 60 34 26 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT